Please read the Unison Asset Management Social Media Disclaimer

Doug O’Laughlin in his Substack Fabricated Knowledge examines the current state of lithography, the process of printing circuits on silicon wafers, to manufacture chips. There is evidence that extreme ultraviolet (EUV) intensity has peaked in 3nm nodes in terms of their share in the wafer fab equipment (WFE) mix for DRAM and logic. Materials engineering companies, like LAM and Applied Materials, are positioned to benefit as etching and deposition increases their share in the WFE mix (LAM already confirmed in their last call that they are gaining share and competing in markets that they didn’t previously compete in). This comes as TSMC has been focused on optimizing EUV usage rather than increasing layers in future nodes. EUV intensity peaking at 3nm should shift the balance of WFE spending towards materials engineering solutions.

The rapid rise of interest rates in 2022 has negatively impacted valuations and balance sheets of many PE-backed companies. The default rate for the portfolio companies at 12 of the leading buyout funds was14.3% in the two years to August, double that of non-PE-backed companies. Since 2022, nearly a quarter of Apollo-owned companies rated by Moody’s have defaulted; and more than half of Platinum and Clearlake’s portfolio companies are considered distressed. Some major buyout funds like Vista Equity, Carlyle, and Thoma Bravo have fallen out of Moody’s radar with their increasing use of private credit solutions.

Andrew Bosworth is Meta’s Chief Technical Officer and was an early employee of Meta who created the News Feed, built out Facebook’s ad product, and has led Meta Reality Labs since 2017. Bosworth discusses on the Big Technology Podcast the capabilities of Orion AR glasses, including contextual awareness and AI integration, and explains how AR technology could reshape computing paradigms. Bosworth emphasizes Meta’s strategic vision in developing AR to reduce platform dependence and speculates on the potential of AR glasses to eventually replace some smartphone functions. The conversation also touches on the philosophical implications of advanced AI, the future of neural interfaces, and the impact of AR on VR and mixed reality devices.

Jared Kaplan co-authored an influential paper in 2020 called “Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models.” They found that model performance follows power-law relationships. Thus, AI models should improve smoothly and predictably with increases in computing power, data, and model size. Kaplan wrote this paper while at OpenAI. Interestingly enough, OpenAI’s model upgrade, codenamed Orion, is showing a slower rate of improvement compared to previous iterations. The performance leap from GPT-4 to Orion is smaller than the jump between GPT-3 and GPT-4, particularly in coding tasks. The slowdown is attributed to a scarcity of high-quality training data. OpenAI has created a “Foundations team” to address data scarcity and explore the limits of current scaling laws.

Druckenmiller is one of the most renowned investors and of our time, so when he speaks, there is an opportunity to learn. In his wide-ranging conversation with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Druckenmiller shares his views on the Fed’s recent policy decisions, reveals his approach to spotting emerging trends like AI and weight-loss drugs. He emphasizes the importance of being forward-thinking (“never invest in the present”), not being afraid of concentration, and of changing your mind when you are wrong. He also casually mentions that he wakes up at 4am and immediately goes to his Bloomberg.